Market Structure, Regulation, and Competitive Insights in African Telecommunications: Evidence from Seven Emerging Economies

Abstract

Abstract

This study provides one of the first multi‑country econometric assessments of the structural, regulatory, and macroeconomic determinants of competition in African telecommunications markets. Using a balanced panel of seven emerging economies—Botswana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, Tanzania, Zambia, and Zimbabwe—from 2010 to 2022, the analysis employs generalised Poisson panel count‑data models to examine how regulatory autonomy, liberalisation, market size, macroeconomic stability, fiscal policy, and infrastructure‑sharing regimes shape the number of active telecom operators. The results show that the demographic scale is a primary driver of sector‑wide competition, while higher GDP per capita strongly predicts telephony‑subsector rivalry. Regulatory autonomy emerges as one of the most significant enablers of operator entry, highlighting the foundational role of independent regulatory institutions. Conversely, import duties on handsets and network equipment substantially suppress competition, underscoring the misalignment between fiscal measures and digital‑development objectives. A key contribution is the discovery of asymmetric effects of mandatory infrastructure sharing: while positively correlated with competition at the aggregate level, it negatively influences telephony markets, suggesting that uniform sharing mandates may entrench incumbency in legacy networks. Overall, the findings demonstrate that competitive outcomes in African telecommunications reflect a nuanced interplay of institutional quality, macroeconomic conditions, and technology‑specific regulatory design, offering actionable insights for policy reforms that support inclusive digital transformation.