Which grades predict what? A more nuanced understanding of using high school results for university admission

Abstract

Abstract

While high school grades are widely used for university admissions, little is known about which specific high school grades best predict what type of performance at university. This study examines the predictive value of overall high school GPA (grade point average), grades for subsets of subjects, and the added value of having taken specific subjects, for university performance across different cognitive learning objectives, different programmes and over time. Using data from multiple cohorts of six undergraduate programmes at a large Dutch research university, we show that the overall high school GPA consistently outperforms subsets of discipline-related subjects, suggesting that high school grades primarily represent general learning skills and traits. However, having taken a specific related high school subject was generally associated with better university performance, although effect sizes were small. High school grades predicted performance better on assessments targeting lower-order cognitive skills than complex academic tasks. No significant differences emerged between the predictive value of high school final-year and penultimate-year grades. Finally, the predictive strength declined over the course of the three-year bachelor programmes. These findings highlight the need for careful consideration of which high school grades to use in admissions and provide practical suggestions for university admissions officers to do so.