Shifting ground to hold firm? EMU rebalancing and the changing politics of euro support

Abstract

Abstract

In a context marked by mounting challenges to international cooperation, public support for the euro has, paradoxically, reached record highs. This article examines whether this reappraisal of the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) coincided with changes in its macroeconomic policy mix. It specifically explores two plausible pathways: First, partisan accommodation, whereby ‘challenger’ parties moderate their opposition to the EMU as its policy orientation evolves. Second, public receptiveness, with citizens adjusting their attitudes toward the EMU as policy developments align with their ideological preferences. Empirically, this analysis rests on a mixed-methods design combining longitudinal Eurobarometer data (2004-2021), party-level evidence from the EU&I surveys (2019, 2024), and original SOLID survey data (2025). Findings show that partisan accommodation is most pronounced on the radical left but is also visible among some radical-right parties. At the mass-public level, the association between policy awareness and euro support differs across initiatives: for the Minimum Wage Directive, a strong positive association emerges among radical-left respondents, whereas for NextGenerationEU, the pattern extends across ideological groups. Taken together, these findings suggest that supranational policymaking may reshape the political constraints under which it operates, pointing to greater scope for political realignment than post-functionalist accounts typically anticipate.