ҚАЗАҚСТАНДАҒЫ ӨЗБЕК, ҰЙҒЫР ЖӘНЕ ДҮНГЕН ЭТНОСТАРЫНЫҢ КЕҢІСТІКТІК ҚОНЫСТАНУ МОДЕЛЬДЕРІ: ДИНАМИКАСЫ МЕН ӨЗГЕРУ БАҒЫТТАРЫ

Abstract

Abstract

The article presents a comparative analysis of the spatial settlement patterns of the Uzbek, Uyghur, and Dungan ethnic groups in Kazakhstan in 2023–2025. In addition, trends in selected areas over the period 2020–2025 are compared. The study aims to identify stable territorial settlement cores, determine the directions of spatial change, and compare the urban and rural components of the settlement structures of the three ethnic groups. The empirical basis of the study consists of data from the Bureau of National Statistics of the Republic of Kazakhstan. These data were supplemented by monitoring materials from the Institute of Applied Ethnopolitical Research covering selected settlements. The analysis was conducted at the national, regional, district, city, and individual settlement levels. Based on the results, a comparative framework was developed to present the principal areas of ethnic concentration, settlement types, major urban centers, and directions of change in settlement geography. More than 90% of each group was found to reside in its principal areas of concentration. However, the internal spatial organization of these areas differs. The settlement pattern of the Uzbek ethnic group constitutes a stable southern urban–rural system combining districts with local ethnic majorities and the major urban center of Shymkent. The Uyghur settlement pattern is characterized by a polycentric southeastern structure. Within this model, the role of Almaty and its agglomeration areas has increased, while trends in the Uyghur and Panfilov districts have moved in different directions. The Dungan settlement pattern combines a principal rural core in Korday District, a secondary center in Zhambyl District, and rapid growth in Almaty, Astana, and selected areas of the Karaganda Region. Although traditional settlement areas retained their decisive importance during the study period, the growing role of major cities and secondary centers gradually increased the complexity of the settlement structure. The scientific contribution of the study lies in its multilevel comparison of the settlement patterns of the three ethnic groups in Kazakhstan using a unified system of indicators. The distinction between territorial concentration and social and institutional enclave formation was adopted as a methodological principle. The study concludes that compact-settlement indicators alone are insufficient to assess ethnic groups’ social ties and levels of participation in public life.