Admission test and academic outcomes in Italian dental education: a retrospective evaluation at the University of Turin

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Admission to dental programs in Italy has traditionally been regulated by a national entrance examination. However, a recent reform replaced this system with a merit-based assessment during a “filter semester.” This study aimed to evaluate whether admission test scores predict academic success in the Dentistry programme at the University of Turin and to compare outcomes between students admitted through the standard process and those admitted via legal appeals. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of 431 students enrolled between 2009 and 2018. In this context, CFUs are fully equivalent to ECTS (European Credit Transfer and Accumulation System) credits. Performance indicators included the accumulation of Crediti Formativi Universitari (CFUs; university credits equivalent to ECTS credits) during the first and second years, degree completion, and on-time graduation. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, expressed as area under the curve (AUC), and logistic regression were used to assess the predictive power of entrance test scores. Higher admission test scores were associated with a greater likelihood of completing coursework and graduating on time. The test showed almost good predictive ability, particularly for first-year performance (AUC = 0.71; 95% CI: 0.65–0.75), total CFUs expected in Years I and II (AUC = 0.74; 95% CI: 0.66–0.81), and degree attainment (AUC = 0.70; 95% CI: 0.67–0.75). A score of 40 (out of 90) was identified as the optimal cut-off for classifying “low” (< 40) and “good” (≥ 40) scores. Students below this threshold had an increased risk of not achieving the expected CFUs in Year I [OR = 5.04; 95% CI: 3.18–7.98], not completing all expected CFUs in Years I and II within the established timeframe [OR = 19.9; 95% CI: 2.72–146.0], and not graduating within six years [OR = 2.27; 95% CI: 1.30–3.96]. The admission test showed almost good predictive value for academic success in dentistry. Its elimination may have implications that warrant further evaluation, particularly in relation to attrition rates and resource allocation. These findings provide evidence to inform the ongoing debate on university admissions in Italy.