Do flood-affected Communities Express a Desire to Migrate or not?

Abstract

Abstract

The study investigates migration intentions and reasons why residents prefer to remain rather than relocate in flood-prone coastal rural areas of Pekalongan Regency, Indonesia. An Exploratory mixed-method approach was employed, involving quantitative analysis of 218 respondents using descriptive statistics and cross tabulation, complemented by in-depth interviews with ten purposively selected informants. The findings reveal that only 20% respondents expressed an intention to migrate despite experiencing persistent environmental degradation and economic hardship. Longer residence, participation in community adaptation, strong social nertworks, road accessibility, and econonomic lossess were associated with migration intentions; however, these environmental and infrastructural constraints did not necessarily translate into a greater willingness to relocate, as most affected households preferred to remain. Qualitative findings indicate that loyalty to place, strong neighborhood bonding, asset ownership, and livelihood continuity are the primary reasons for staying. The results suggest that migration is considered a last-resort adaptation strategy, while in-situ adaptation remains the preferred response. Understanding why communities choose to remain in harzard-prone areas is essential for designing climate adaptation strategies that respect local values, reduce the risk of involuntary displacement, and contribute to Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), particularly in vulnerable social regions of Southeast Asia.