Multi-Scenario Simulation of Construction Land-Use Change and Ecosystem Service Value Response for Resilient and Sustainable Built Environment Optimization: A Case Study of Xi’an, China

Abstract

Abstract

With the Qinling ecological barrier located in the south, the Guanzhong Plain’s agricultural systems in the central–north, and urban construction expanding outward, Xi’an represents a typical western Chinese metropolis where multiple land functions compete within a limited territory. Such spatial overlap exerts considerable stress upon the provisioning of regional ecosystem services. To ascertain how different land-use configuration trajectories might affect ecological outcomes, this study couples multi-objective programming (MOP), a PLUS-based spatial allocation model, ecosystem service value (ESV) accounting, a sensitivity index (SI), and a local response index (LRI). Historical land-use cartographic datasets for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were mobilized to identify transitions, validate the simulation framework, and generate prospective land-use configuration projections for 2040 across four policy pathways: status quo continuation, growth-oriented, ecological–conservation-preferred, and balanced. The retrospective analysis reveals a clear north–south dichotomy: forests dominate the southern Qinling range, cropland occupies the central and northern plains, and built-up areas have progressively encroached into peripheral cropland, which serves as the primary source of new construction. For 2040, simulated ecological performance differs markedly across scenarios. The conservation-priority pathway yields the largest ESV, totaling 3.317 × 1010 CNY—6.64% higher than the 2020 baseline. In contrast, the growth-oriented pathway gives the smallest ESV, 2.948 × 1010 CNY, representing a 5.24% reduction. In 2020, forest land alone contributed 79.7% of the total ESV, remaining the dominant contributor. According to the SI and LRI outcomes, positive ESV shifts are mainly concentrated in the Qinling piedmont transitional zone, Lantian County, and southeastern Chang’an District, whereas negative shifts are tightly coupled with zones of urban expansion. Taken together, these results imply that future spatial planning in Xi’an should give top priority to safeguarding the Qinling ecological system, curbing construction land growth along the agricultural–urban interface, and promoting blue-green infrastructure renewal within already built-up areas.