U.S. Soybean Meal Exports After the Crush Expansion: Markets, Routes, and Competitiveness

Abstract

Abstract

The October 2026 NDSU Agricultural Trade Monitor examines how expanding U.S. soybean crushing capacity is changing soybean meal exports, market opportunities, and transportation costs. U.S. meal exports are estimated at 18.6 million metric tons in 2025/26 and are projected at 20.6 million in 2026/27, with the U.S. share of world exports projected at 23 percent. The United States has retained its position in core markets such as the Philippines and Colombia. The European Union, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Thailand offer further opportunities because they import large volumes while purchasing relatively small shares from U.S. suppliers. The report compares competition from Brazil and Argentina and examines transportation costs through the Pacific Northwest and Gulf routes. Lower freight costs through the Pacific Northwest give Plains plants an advantage in serving Asian markets. Thailand’s trade framework with the United States also identifies soybean meal among planned agricultural purchases. Additional crush capacity, supported by soybean oil demand for biofuels, is expected to generate more meal for export. The analysis highlights the importance of overseas demand for new plants in the Dakotas, Nebraska, and Kansas, where local livestock feeding absorbs a small share of potential meal output.