Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
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Abstract
Abstract
Tropical cyclones (TCs) are one of the most destructive natural disasters. It is important to document long-term changes in TC properties to better prepare for the damages associated with TCs. TC lifespan is one of the little-studied TC characteristics. Here we show that annual mean TC duration has been decreasing at rates of -13 ± 6 and -7 ± 6 hours per decade, corresponding to approximately 56 and 30 h shorter average lifespans, in the Northeast and Northwest Pacific, respectively, from 1982 to 2024. The decreasing trend is primarily due to shorter TC tracks associated with poleward migration of TC genesis latitude. The TC intensification (weakening) rate before (after) the first (last) lifetime maximum intensity has increased, a phenomenon in which environmental conditions and internal convective structure may both play a role. The shorter TC lifespan over the open ocean before entering coastal zones compresses the time available for weather forecasting and disaster preparedness.
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@article{Zhu2026significant,
title = {A significant drop in tropical cyclones’ lifespan in the Pacific over the past 40 years},
author = {Kuilin Zhu and Hui Su and Chengxing Zhai},
journal = {npj Climate and Atmospheric Science},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.1038/s41612-026-01477-7},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-026-01477-7}
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