Impacts of anticipated changes in the operational environment on forest resources and potential timber supply in Europe

Abstract

Abstract

European forests and forestry are facing multiple changes now and in the coming decades. Understanding how these changes may alter forest resources and timber supply is crucial for anticipating future risks and guiding sustainable forest policy and management. Based on the literature, we identified eight factors stemming from political, economic, social, technological, and environmental developments and mapped experts’ and stakeholders’ views via a survey. Respondents were asked to assess both the directional trend and the magnitude of the anticipated changes in forest resources and potential timber supply across Europe by 2040. In addition to natural disturbances and extreme events, respondents perceived changes in trees’ growing conditions due to climate change to be the most significant factors. However, most expected the impacts to remain minor by 2040. The perceived effects varied in direction: nearly all factors were expected to either decrease or have no impact on the forest area available for wood production. On average, respondents anticipated an increase in dead wood volume per hectare and an increase in tree species richness across all change factors. Furthermore, generally, respondents anticipated a reduction in the volumes of conifer sawlogs and veneer logs, and conifer pulpwood resulting from nearly all change factors.