Dynamic Linkages Between Climate Change, Agriculture, and International Migration: Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregression

Abstract

Abstract

This article examines how climate variability affects international migration directly and indirectly through agricultural productivity in a panel of 163 countries over 1960–2024. Using a panel vector autoregression framework, it traces the dynamic responses of migration and agricultural performance to precipitation and temperature shocks while addressing endogeneity and feedback effects. The results show that climate variables influence migration through two channels. First, precipitation and temperature have direct effects on migration flows, although these responses are mostly short- to medium-term. Second, climate shocks significantly affect agricultural productivity, which in turn shapes migration dynamics, confirming agriculture as a central transmission mechanism. Subsample estimates indicate that the magnitude of these effects differs by income level, with low- and middle-income countries generally exhibiting stronger vulnerability to climatic shocks. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of climate-resilient agriculture and coordinated migration policies in responding to climate-induced mobility pressures across development contexts.