The City of London and Brexit 10 Years On

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract Ten years after the Brexit referendum, the impact of Brexit on the City of London remains contested. This paper evaluates three competing interpretations: resilience, which argues that London has retained global leadership in foreign exchange, derivatives clearing and international financial services; attrition, which highlights the gradual relocation of firms, assets and trading activity to the European Union; and renaissance, which views Brexit as an opportunity for regulatory reform and enhanced competitiveness. Drawing on BIS statistics, ESMA data, industry evidence and post-Brexit regulatory developments, the paper argues that each narrative captures part of a broader structural transformation. London has lost some EU-facing business while remaining dominant in globally networked, high-value financial activities. At the same time, financial activity has fragmented across several European centres without creating a single rival to London. The paper further argues that New York has been the principal indirect beneficiary of Brexit, reinforcing its position within the global financial system. Brexit therefore did not diminish London’s global importance but transformed it from Europe’s undisputed financial capital into a more specialised international financial centre operating between a fragmented European market and an increasingly dominant Wall Street.