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Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Hourly Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States

Dmitri Kalashnikov, John T. Abatzoglou, Alyssa M. Stansfield

Geophysical Research Letters | Jun 18, 2026

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) are major drivers of contiguous United States (CONUS) flooding, yet their contribution to hourly precipitation extremes remains poorly quantified. Here we link observations from 420 gauges (1980–2024) with TC track data to attribute extreme hourly precipitation to both local and remote TCs. Remote TC contributions are identified via atmospheric river (AR) objects using the TempestExtremes framework applied to a global AR database. We identify 254 TCs that contributed to extreme hourly precipitation, affecting 76% of stations. While local contributions from Atlantic TCs are prevalent in eastern CONUS, remote influences from Pacific TCs contribute to precipitation extremes in the rest of CONUS. The number of TCs resulting in extreme hourly precipitation has increased significantly in northeast and southeast CONUS since 1980. These results reveal that TC‐linked moisture represents a contributor to short‐duration precipitation extremes across a broader area of CONUS than previously recognized.

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Authors

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Dmitri Kalashnikov

first | University of California, Merced | ORCID 0000-0002-2777-4909

John T. Abatzoglou

middle | University of California, Merced | ORCID 0000-0001-7599-9750

Alyssa M. Stansfield

last | University of Utah | ORCID 0000-0003-0380-607X

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Citation

BibTeX

@article{Kalashnikov2026Contribution,
  title = {Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to Hourly Precipitation Extremes in the Contiguous United States},
  author = {Dmitri Kalashnikov and John T. Abatzoglou and Alyssa M. Stansfield},
  journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1029/2026gl122815},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl122815}
}

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