Net-zero feasibility of offshore oil and gas platforms under alternative decarbonization policy scenarios

Abstract

Abstract

Offshore oil and gas platforms often generate their own power, creating emissions that must fall even as some production continues during the energy transition. Electrifying these platforms can help, but its climate value depends on whether the shore power they buy is clean. Here we show, using a spatial assessment of 957 offshore sites in 49 countries and regions under three International Energy Agency policy scenarios for 2030, 2040 and 2050, that economically attractive electrification does not always reduce emissions. Global emissions cuts reach 72.0% only in the 2050 net-zero scenario, remain much smaller in other cases, and are negative in some countries under 2030 announced pledges. By 2050, strict net-zero platform operation is economically feasible in only about 14% of countries across all scenarios, whereas about 43% cannot achieve it in any scenario. Stronger targets sharply increase offshore wind and energy storage requirements, highlighting the need to align platform electrification with cleaner power systems and infrastructure planning. 72.0% global emission cuts occur only in the 2050 net zero scenario, are small elsewhere, and negative in some 2030 cases, with about 14% feasible and about 43% infeasible according to spatial analysis of 957 offshore sites in 49 countries under three policy scenarios for 2030, 2040 and 2050.