Early prediction of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy using machine learning and medical records from the first and second trimesters

Abstract

Abstract

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDPs) remain a major challenge in maternal health. Early prediction of HDPs is crucial for timely intervention. Most existing predictive machine learning (ML) models rely on costly methods like blood, urine, genetic tests, and ultrasound, often extracting features from data gathered throughout pregnancy, delaying intervention. This study developed an ML model to identify HDP risk before clinical onset using affordable methods. Features were extracted from blood pressure (BP) measurements, body mass index values (BMI) recorded during the first and second trimesters, and maternal demographic information. We employed a random forest classification model for its robustness and ability to handle complex datasets. Our dataset, gathered from large academic medical centers in Atlanta, Georgia, United States (2010-2022), comprised 1,190 patients with 1,216 records collected during the first and second trimesters. Despite the limited number of features, the model's performance demonstrated a strong ability to accurately predict HDPs. The model achieved an F1-score, accuracy, positive predictive value, and area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve of 0.76, 0.72, 0.75, and 0.78, respectively. In conclusion, the model was shown to be effective in capturing the relevant patterns in the feature set necessary for predicting HDPs. Moreover, it can be implemented using simple devices, such as BP monitors and weight scales, providing a practical solution for early HDPs prediction in low-resource settings with proper testing and validation. By improving the early detection of HDPs, this approach can potentially help with the management of adverse pregnancy outcomes.