Tropical and Extratropical Cyclones Research
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Abstract
Abstract
Abstract During the 2024 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program real-time experiment, NOAA’s Global Systems Laboratory (GSL) produced twice-daily, five-day forecasts of North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) using a 3-km regional configuration of the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS). These forecasts incorporated GSL-led physics parameterizations from NOAA’s operational regional modeling suite and used cold-start initializations from 0.25° Global Forecast System output. Overall, MPAS TC track forecasts had skill comparable to or exceeding that of NOAA’s operational Hurricane Analysis and Forecast System (HAFS) models. Track forecasts for United States landfalling TCs Francine, Helene, and Milton were particularly skillful relative to HAFS and the National Hurricane Center’s official forecasts. Similarly, MPAS TC intensity forecasts had skill comparable to or exceeding that from HAFS at and beyond 36 h lead times, including for rapid intensification at 36-60 h lead times. The relatively coarse data used to initialize the MPAS forecasts hindered intensity forecast skill in the first 24 h, particularly for intense TCs Helene and Milton. MPAS forecasts were also able to reliably predict and faithfully depict TC hazards, including the heavy rainfall associated with TC Helene, and internal structural changes, including the eyewall replacement cycles associated with TC Milton.
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@article{Evans2026Performance,
title = {Performance of a Real-Time North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Prediction System using the Model for Prediction Across Scales during the 2024 NOAA Hurricane Forecast Improvement Program Real-Time Experiment},
author = {C. J. Evans and Christina Holt and Molly Smith},
journal = {Weather and Forecasting},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.1175/waf-d-26-0039.1},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-26-0039.1}
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