Aporte del Sindicalismo al Crecimiento Económico en Colombia: Análisis Histórico de la Densidad Sindical y Correlación Econométrica con el PIB de los Sectores Público y Manufacturero (1947-2025)

Abstract

Abstract

This study analyzes the historical evolution of trade union membership in Colombia between 1947 and 2025, evaluating union density and statistically determining the contribution of the labor movement to the economic dynamics of the public and manufacturing sectors. In this regard, I consider this study essential given that there is a lack of research on trade unionism in Colombia integrating long-term macroeconometric time series with sector GDP analysis and public perception. To achieve this objective, I consider it appropriate to employ a quantitative, descriptive-correlational, and non-experimental longitudinal design. The national historical series was reconstructed by integrating official censuses from the Ministry of Labor, SISLAB-ENS reports, and DANE national accounts. Using linear regression and interpolation, union membership was projected for 2025, and Pearson correlation coefficients were evaluated between union membership and sector Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from 2010 to 2025. Additionally, a perception survey () was administered, with a Cronbach's Alpha of 0.965. Results revealed that national union membership reached 1,207,064 workers in 2025, representing a low union density of 5.08% over total employed workers and 8.94% over salaried employees. Econometric analysis demonstrated a strong and highly statistically significant positive correlation between unionization and public sector GDP (; ), whereas the relationship in the manufacturing sector was weak and non-significant (; ). The field study showed 58.8% support for the protective function of unions, yet only 35.3% perceived adequate leadership representation. It is concluded that Colombian trade unionism has shifted its structural weight toward public administration, serving as an institutional driver of labor stability, while deindustrialization and outsourcing have diluted its expansion in manufacturing.