Beyond reactive displacement: anticipatory mobility, climate governance, and the climate passport

Abstract

Abstract

This article examines how existing mobility governance frameworks can be re-theorized to better align with the temporal dynamics of climate risk and the conditions shaping mobility decision-making. The analysis demonstrates that current mobility regimes systematically privilege discretionary, event-based protection while offering limited legal predictability or rights-based recognition for anticipatory and incremental mobility. Building on this analysis, the article develops the Climate Passport as a diagnostic framework rather than an operational policy instrument. The framework specifies three governance criteria that any adequate anticipatory mobility regime would need to satisfy: early recognition of climate risk before displacement becomes unavoidable, rights-based and legally predictable status for those facing slow-onset environmental harm, and institutional coherence across the currently fragmented domains of migration, refugee protection, and climate adaptation governance. Informed by the historical Nansen Passport and grounded in human rights and climate justice scholarship, the framework offers a systematic lens for examining how institutional architectures structure the timing, legitimacy, and accessibility of mobility under climate change. By reframing climate-related mobility as a structurally embedded component of adaptation rather than an exceptional failure of in situ resilience, the article contributes to interdisciplinary debates on migration, adaptation, and global justice.