Real-time and postseason tropical cyclone intensity estimate differences

Abstract

Abstract

Abstract Global tropical cyclone warning centers construct representations of the vortex with estimates of intensity, central pressure, and position. This work analyzes differences between the real-time and postseason intensity estimates analyses. Using tropical cyclone data for 2004–23 seasons from the North Atlantic, eastern, central, and western North Pacific, north Indian Ocean, and Southern Hemisphere basins, this work shows consistency between most estimates. But further examination illustrates that only 29%–38% of cases have consistent intensity estimates during extreme intensity change (i.e., rapid intensification and weakening). For the inconsistent cases, this work evaluates how the real-time estimates differ from observations and explores the impacts on future intensity forecast skill. During rapid intensification, forecasters can increase 12- and 24-h intensity forecast skill with improved initial intensities roughly 70% of the time with over a 10% skill improvement relative to a baseline forecast. This work shows similar results for 12-h rapid weakening intensity forecasts, and also indicates that adjusting the initial intensity during rapid weakening provides trivial skill improvement relative to a baseline forecast at 24 h. The results suggest that improving the current intensity estimate through more accurate, more frequent, and timely low-latency detection will yield better tropical cyclone intensity forecasts.