Operationalizing deterrence theory: Deterrence assessment for the real world

Abstract

Abstract

Global dynamics related to nuclear deterrence are becoming increasingly chaotic and difficult to model as the United States faces multiple nuclear near-peers and unstable regional actors with growing capabilities. Game theory has historically informed deterrence strategy, but its abstract nature has limited its usefulness for finer-grained decisions. To address this, this paper outlines a framework that extends game theory to better capture these dynamics and assess deterrence effects on different US courses of action in a reproducible, scrutable, and uncertainty-aware fashion. It does so by building a utility framework based on the Lowy Institutes’ national power methodology and by incorporating uncertainty at each level. The former links utility to concrete metrics, such as gross domestic product, while the latter quantifies the significance of analytic results. Finally, an example fictitious scenario is analyzed to demonstrate the model’s capabilities.