Pacific and Southeast Asian Studies Open access Peer reviewed

Wiggles, Plateaus, and Precision: High-Resolution Radiocarbon Dating of the Transition from Early East Polynesian to Classic Māori Society.

Fiona Petchey, Atholl Anderson, Louise Furey, Simon H. Bickler and 4 more

Journal of Pacific Archaeology | Sep 16, 2026

Abstract

Abstract

Achieving precise archaeological chronologies in island environments has long been hindered by plateaus and wiggles in the radiocarbon calibration curve. This study shows how to overcome these temporal bottlenecks by integrating Bayesian principles with high-precision sample selection, and demonstrates how the interpretation of archaeological context affects the results. Using two iconic Aotearoa, New Zealand sites previously dated over 30 years ago, we showcase the power of this approach and the limitations of working with legacy data. At Shag River Mouth, we reveal, for the first time, a detailed picture of site reuse starting ca. AD 1320 by considering changes ("wiggles") in atmospheric 14C between AD 1290 and 1400. Similarly, at Kokohuia, we demonstrate how to achieve greater resolution between AD 1480 and 1640, a plateau in the 14C calibration curve that has traditionally masked the transition between early East Polynesian and later Classic Māori culture. Our results provide unprecedented temporal resolution of economic changes over 500 years and demonstrate that these changes began much earlier than orthodox chronologies suggest.

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Authors

Researchers on this paper

Fiona Petchey

first | University of Waikato | ORCID 0000-0002-3308-9983

Atholl Anderson

middle | Australian National University | ORCID 0000-0002-7636-7306

Louise Furey

middle

Simon H. Bickler

middle | University of Waikato | ORCID 0000-0001-7620-2862

Gerard O’Regan

middle | Otago Polytechnic

Matthew Schmidt

middle | ORCID 0009-0001-5865-4723

RODERICK WALLACE

middle | Film Independent

Peter Sheppard

last | University of Auckland | ORCID 0000-0001-6624-7856

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BibTeX

@article{Petchey2026Wiggles,
  title = {Wiggles, Plateaus, and Precision: High-Resolution Radiocarbon Dating of the Transition from Early East Polynesian to Classic Māori Society.},
  author = {Fiona Petchey and Atholl Anderson and Louise Furey and Simon H. Bickler and Gerard O’Regan and Matthew Schmidt and RODERICK WALLACE and Peter Sheppard},
  journal = {Journal of Pacific Archaeology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.70460/jpa.v16i1.412},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.70460/jpa.v16i1.412}
}

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