Incidence and Risk Factors of Mortality in Adults with Congenital Heart Disease: Results from the Mayo Adult Congenital Heart Disease Registry

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Background: Adults with congenital heart disease (ACHD) represent a rapidly expanding population with evolving mortality patterns. Despite improved survival, excess mortality persists. Objective: To evaluate the incidence, causes, and predictors of mortality in a contemporary ACHD cohort. Methods: We performed a retrospective cohort study of adults (?18 years) first evaluated at Mayo Clinic from 2002?2023. Baseline clinical, imaging, and electrocardiographic data were analyzed. Vital status was determined using institutional records and the Accurint national mortality database. Kaplan-Meier analysis and Cox proportional hazard models were used to evaluate mortality and identify independent predictors of mortality Results: A total of 7,678 ACHD patients were included, with median age of 36.8 years and median follow-up of 11.4 years. During 78,768 patient-years of follow-up, 1,116 patients died (median age at death 57.2 years), corresponding to an annual mortality rate of 1.4%. The cumulative rate of all-cause mortality at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years was 6.9%, 12.0%, 19.0%, and 26.2%, respectively. When stratified by CHD complexity, the annual death rate in patients with severe CHD (2.4%/year) was twice that of patients with moderate or mild CHD (both 1.2%/year). Older age and ACHD subtypes, specifically, cyanotic heart disease (HR 3.9, 95% CI 2.9?5.3) and Fontan physiology (HR 3.2, 95% CI 2.3?4.4), were strongly associated with increased mortality. Additional independent predictors included male sex, ventricular dysfunction, advanced NYHA class, prior heart failure hospitalization, hypertension, smoking, coronary artery disease, renal dysfunction, and abnormal hemoglobin levels. Cardiovascular causes accounted for 57.7% of deaths with known etiology, predominantly heart failure (48.9%) and sudden cardiac death (21.9%), while non-cardiovascular causes were driven mainly by infection and malignancy. Conclusions: In this large contemporary ACHD cohort, mortality was driven by ventricular dysfunction, heart failure, and systemic end-organ involvement in addition to the underlying congenital anatomy. Both cardiovascular and non-cardiovascular causes contributed significantly to mortality. These findings underscore the need for comprehensive multidisciplinary ACHD care focused on early recognition of cardiac functional decline, management of acquired comorbidities, and end-organ dysfunction.