Cybersecurity and Cyber Warfare Studies
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Abstract
Abstract
Cyberspace is not ungoverned—it is systematically misgoverned. International instruments, national strategies, and voluntary frameworks have proliferated while security outcomes deteriorated. This inversion—more governance, less resilience—is the "Proliferation Paradox." The paper introduces "Governance Debt": the institutional deficit that accumulates when AI-driven technological change outpaces governance adaptation. This debt compounds across three dimensions: Capacity Debt (threat velocity exceeds institutional response cycles), Authority Debt (no enforcement jurisdiction over borderless AI infrastructure), and Legitimacy Debt (governance authority migrates to unaccountable private actors).This paper examines cybersecurity governance in 29 countries. It identifies three institutional models: Integrated Command, Nodal Hybrid, and Fragmented Sectoral. Key finding: institutional architecture predicts operational resilience more consistently than strategy quality or financial investment. The analysis covers 66 governance instruments and reveals four critical weaknesses in how AI challenges current systems: Scale (velocity), Attribution (identity), Dependence (vulnerability to foreign platforms), and Agency (autonomous systems without accountability). The paper calls cloud providers, AI developers, and standards bodies "private leviathans": they exercise sovereign-scale power over cyberspace without democratic mandate or meaningful accountability.Using the OECD Strategic Foresight Toolkit, the paper stress-tests six governance models across four 2030 scenarios. Two extremes fail: total centralization (a Global Cyber Agency) and total market-led governance. The "Adaptive Federated Stack"—a five-layer architecture—distributes authority across existing institutions without creating a new apex body. This model performs across all scenarios and resolves all three Governance Debt dimensions. The central argument: between 2026 and 2030, governance success requires interoperability, not unity.
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@article{KEMEL2026Governs,
title = {Who Governs Cyberspace in the age of AI? A Global Stocktake of Cybersecurity Governance},
author = {YANNIS KEMEL},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.31235/osf.io/7upyz_v1},
url = {https://doi.org/10.31235/osf.io/7upyz_v1}
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