Nigeria Economy Under Climate Change

Abstract

Abstract

This research work examined the impact of climate change on Nigeria economy (GDP) from 2004 – 2024. The study used secondary data sourced from the world bank. The Nigeria Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the dependent variable while climatic factors; Co2 emissions, animal average precipitation (AAP) and animal mean temperature (TEMP) are explanatory variables. The regression revealed that carbon dioxide emissions and annual temperature are statistically significant determinants of Nigeria’s GDP, while average annual precipitation is not. Specifically, CO₂ emissions have a positive and highly significant effect on GDP (coefficient = 0.663, p < 0.01), indicating that a 1% increase in emissions is associated with a 0.66% increase in GDP. This reflects Nigeria’s heavy dependence on fossil fuel extraction and combustion. Conversely, annual temperature has a negative and marginally significant effect on GDP (coefficient = -9.576, p < 0.1), meaning that a 1% rise in annual mean temperature leads to approximately a 9.6% decline in GDP. Given Nigeria’s very narrow temperature range (0.9°C), this large coefficient signals high economic sensitivity to even slight warming through reduced agricultural yields, lower labour productivity, higher cooling costs, and adverse health impacts. The model explains 83.4% of GDP variation (R-squared = 0.834) and is statistically significant overall (F-statistic p < 0.001). The study recommends that Nigeria pursue decoupling of GDP growth from CO₂ emissions by investing in renewable energy (especially solar), improving energy efficiency, and reducing gas flaring. Additionally, temperature resilience must be mainstreamed into economic planning through agricultural adaptation (heat-tolerant crops), workplace heat safety measures, urban green infrastructure, and health system preparedness for heat-related illnesses. These actions are essential to balance economic growth with climate sustainability.