Spatiotemporal heterogeneity of ecosystem service value and multi-scenario simulation in the mountainous region of Western Henan Province based on LUCC

Abstract

Abstract

Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) is a critical quantitative indicator for assessing regional sustainable development. The Mountainous Region of Western Henan Province constitutes one of Henan’s most ecologically fragile zones, making it a priority area for integrated land-use and ecosystem management. This study systematically investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of land use/cover change (LUCC) and its implications for ESV from 2003 to 2023, employing three complementary analytical approaches: dynamic degree analysis, land use transition matrices, and the equivalent factor method. To project future trajectories, we further apply the high-precision intPLUS model to simulate land use configurations under three distinct scenarios for 2033—Natural Development (ND), Economic Development (ED), and Ecological Protection (EP), and analyze corresponding ESV evolution patterns, including directional trends and spatial cold/hot spot distributions. Key findings are as follows: (1) Between 2003 and 2023, Cropland, Grassland, and unused land contracted significantly, whereas Forest, Water bodies, and Construction land expanded continuously. Cropland and Forest jointly dominated land use composition, collectively accounting for over 85% of the total area. (2) ESV increased steadily from 82.06 to 86.15 billion CNY during this period, driven primarily by Forest and Water. Spatially, ESV exhibited a pronounced “west-high, east-low” gradient, with high-value clusters concentrated in Forest-rich municipalities (Sanmenxia, Luoyang, and Nanyang) and low-value clusters localized in Construction land-intensive zones, including central Zhengzhou, northern Luoyang, and central Pingdingshan. Moreover, ESV grade transitions were predominantly inter-adjacent, and net ESV gain exceeded loss, indicating an overall enhancement in ecosystem service supply capacity. (3) By 2033, ESV is projected to rise under all scenarios. The EP scenario yields the highest ESV (87.58 billion CNY), with minimal expansion of low−value zones and maximal high−value zone extent. The ED scenario produces the smallest ESV increase (87.29 billion CNY) and largest construction land expansion, reflecting measurable ecological trade−offs. (4)The intPLUS model achieves superior simulation accuracy (kappa = 0.8250, FOM improved by 22.9% over baseline), confirming its suitability for capturing land−use competition in mountainous regions. These findings elucidate the causal linkage between LUCC and ESV dynamics in western Henan’s mountainous region, offering empirically grounded insights to inform land-use optimization, evidence-based ecological policy design, and long-term regional sustainability planning.