Production and Export Dynamics of Onion in India: An Analysis of Growth and Instability

Abstract

Abstract

Onion (Allium cepa L.) is one of India's most important commercial vegetable crops and contributes substantially to agricultural production, farmers' income, employment generation, and export earnings. India is among the world's leading onion producers and exporters; however, the sector has experienced considerable fluctuations in production and export performance. The present study analysed growth and instability in onion production, export quantity, export value, and unit export value in India using secondary data obtained from the Agricultural and Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), and other published sources for the period 1995–96 to 2024–25. The study period was divided into Period I (1995–96 to 2009–10), Period II (2010–11 to 2024–25), and the overall period (1995–96 to 2024–25). Compound Growth Rate (CGR), Coefficient of Variation (CV), Cuddy–Della Valle Instability Index (CDVI), and Coppock's Instability Index (CII) were used to analyse growth and instability. The results indicated considerable improvement in onion production and export performance during the study period, accompanied by increasing variability. Export value was the most volatile variable, followed by export quantity, unit export value, and production, indicating the influence of international market fluctuations, domestic price volatility, and export policy interventions. The instability indices also confirmed that export earnings were substantially more unstable than production. The study suggests that stable export policies, scientific storage facilities, efficient post-harvest management, market intelligence systems, export diversification, and value addition could mitigate instability, enhance the global competitiveness of Indian onion exports, and support sustainable producer incomes.