Meteorological Phenomena and Simulations
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Abstract
Abstract
Abstract Forecasting rotation within thunderstorms requires high-resolution models which coarse CAMs (e.g., 3-km horizontal grid spacing) may lack the ability to sufficiently resolve. Thunderstorm rotation forecasts from experimental versions of the Warn-on-Forecast System with 1- and 3-km horizontal grid spacing (WoFS-1km and WoFS-3km, respectively) are compared using 23 high-impact convective case studies. Both mid- and low-level rotation are identified using an object-based method as an attribute of parent composite reflectivity objects. Rotation verification using multi-radar multi-sensor (MRMS) data and NWS tornado warnings is performed only when parent thunderstorms are accurately predicted by both WoFS-1km and WoFS-3km. Mid-level rotation probability of detection (POD) is higher in WoFS-1km for all parent thunderstorm size bins while the false alarm ratio (FAR) differences are statistically insignificant. This yields a statistically significant improvement in equitable threat score (ETS) in WoFS-1km. WoFS-1km has a significantly higher ETS for parent thunderstorms with a minor axis length < 40 km for forecast lead times under 60 minutes. The low-level rotation statistics are similar to that of mid-level rotation although with fewer significant differences between WoFS-1km and WoFS-3km. The object-based method reveals WoFS-3km has too few rotating storms with rotation objects that are too large compared to WoFS-1km. WoFS-1km has smaller displacement errors for rotation than WoFS-3km due to both smaller parent storm displacement errors and reduced intrastorm rotation location errors.
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@article{Kerr2026Reduced,
title = {Reduced horizontal model grid spacing impact on short-term thunderstorm rotation forecasts},
author = {Christopher A. Kerr and Derek R. Stratman and Patrick S. Skinner and Brian C. Matilla and Yunheng Wang and Nusrat Yussouf},
journal = {Weather and Forecasting},
year = {2026},
doi = {10.1175/waf-d-25-0189.1},
url = {https://doi.org/10.1175/waf-d-25-0189.1}
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