Spatio-Temporal Dynamics of Ecosystems and Their Services: An Assessment of Regulating Services in Five Protected Areas of Greece

Abstract

Abstract

Multi-temporal ecosystem-type maps for 1945, 1996, and 2022 were developed to examine how long-term ecosystem-type change influences regulating ecosystem services (ESs) across five Natura 2000 sites in Greece. We quantified three regulating ESs: climate regulation, hydrological regulation, and soil erosion regulation, using InVEST, and assessed multifunctionality using the combined Comprehensive Ecosystem Services Index (CESI). ES dynamics were assessed through a multi-metric framework of change indices comprising the Ecosystem Services Change Index (ESCI) and the Ecosystem Service Status Index (ESSI). In addition, we explored ES synergies and trade-offs and identified ES bundles using Self-Organizing Maps. The results showed pronounced spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Sites characterized by gradual woody expansion generally exhibited stable ES structures and modest improvements in regulating service status. In contrast, sites affected by disturbances and anthropogenic pressures (notably wildfire and urban expansion), showed persistent declines and an expansion of low-performing zones. Hydrologically dynamic systems characterized by land–water shifts exhibited persistent trade-offs between hydrological regulation and the other regulating services. Overall, ecosystem-type change analysis, combined with ES metrics quantification and spatial bundling, provided valuable insights for the assessment of the spatio-temporal dynamics of ESs. Study findings can also facilitate the preliminary translation of ES patterns into functional zones, serving as decision-support indicators for spatially targeted and adaptive Natura 2000 management measures and actions.