An AI-Driven Management Information System for Employee Attrition Prediction: Enhancing Human Agency Through XGBoost and Explainable AI

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Employee attrition is a significant organizational challenge associated with substantial financial costs and the erosion of institutional knowledge. This study presents an AI-based Management Information System (MIS) that integrates machine learning (ML) models to forecast employee turnover and support technical interpretability for HR decision-making. Using the IBM HR Analytics Dataset comprising 1480 employee records with 38 features, we implemented a rigorous preprocessing pipeline—including Synthetic Minority Over-sampling Technique (SMOTE) applied exclusively within training folds to prevent data leakage, one-hot encoding, Z-score normalization, and mean-value imputation. Four ML classifiers—Logistic Regression (LR), Random Forest (RF), Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP), and XGBoost—were evaluated under a stratified 80/20 split with 5-fold cross-validation. XGBoost achieved the highest performance, attaining an accuracy of 87.83%, a ROC-AUC of 0.94, a PR-AUC of 0.96, and an F1-score of 93.04%, attributed to its sequential boosting mechanism and built-in L1/L2 regularization. Beyond predictive performance, the system incorporates SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) to deliver feature-level transparency, enabling HR professionals to engage in proactive, informed retention interventions while retaining full decision-making authority. Within-dataset comparisons confirm that the proposed framework outperforms prior methods evaluated on the same benchmark; cross-study accuracy comparisons are reported as contextual reference only, given differences in datasets and experimental protocols. The system facilitates human oversight by positioning AI as a decision-support collaborator rather than an autonomous replacement in workforce management. Future work will address real-time deployment, controlled user studies with HR practitioners, and validation with actual organizational HR data.