Modelingand Forecasting Castor Price Dynamics in Andhra Pradesh

Abstract

Abstract

The present study was conducted during January, 2011 to August, 2025 at Agricultural College, Bapatla, aimed to forecast castor (Ricinus communis L.) prices in the Adoni, Kurnool and Yemmiganur markets of Andhra Pradesh using secondary time series data spanning 176 months. India, the fourth largest producer of oilseeds in the world, accounting for 20.8% of total global cultivated area and 10% of global production. Oilseeds were cultivated over 29.16 mha in 2021–22, producing 37.70 mt with an average yield of 1,292 kg ha-1 in the country. Andhra Pradesh, one of the largest producers of oilseeds in India during 2021–22, the area under oilseeds in Andhra Pradesh was 0.91 mha, with a production of 0.548 mt and average yield of 603 kg ha-1. In this study, various linear-nonlinear regression models (Linear, Quadratic, Cubic, Exponential and Power) and time series models (ARIMA, GARCH), along with hybrid time series models were employed. Based on diagnostic criteria such as R², RMSE and MAPE, GARCH and hybrid time series models were found to outperform the other selected models for Adoni and for both Kurnool, Yemmiganur markets, respectively. Consequently, the prices of castor in Adoni, Kurnool and Yemmiganur were forecasted by using AR(1)-GARCH (1,1), ARIMA (1,1,1)-GARCH (1,1) and ARIMA (2,1,1)-GARCH (1,1) models, respectively. The forecasted prices for February 2026 were projected at Rs. 5498.54, Rs. 5186.02 and Rs. 5854.62 q-1 for the Adoni, Kurnool and Yemmiganur markets, respectively.