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First-order estimates of slip rates and earthquake recurrence intervals of offshore seismogenic structures from the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) project

Cheng‐Hung Chen, J. Bruce H. Shyu

Engineering Geology | Jul 4, 2026

Abstract

Abstract

To accurately assess future seismic hazard, it is necessary to obtain reliable estimates of slip rates and earthquake recurrence intervals for seismogenic structures. Whereas many comprehensive on-land active fault databases are available, offshore fault data are often insufficient, making them rarely incorporated in hazard models. Toward this end, we designed three methods for estimating slip rates of 54 offshore seismogenic faults surrounding Taiwan. These methods involve measuring stratigraphic or geomorphic offsets combined with their ages, comparing relative motion across faults, and utilizing geometric relationships between neighboring faults. The results show that faults in the Ryukyu subduction upper plate and eastern offshore Taiwan are the most active, with slip rates >15 mm/yr and earthquake recurrence intervals 6 kyr. These spatial patterns are consistent with the development of Taiwan's collisional orogeny. This comprehensive offshore fault slip-rate and earthquake recurrence interval database is the first of its kind for Taiwan and would significantly improve the completeness of seismic hazard assessments. Furthermore, the proposed slip-rate estimation methods can also be applied to other offshore regions worldwide where data are limited.

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Authors

Researchers on this paper

Cheng‐Hung Chen

first | National Taiwan University | ORCID 0009-0005-2934-2033

J. Bruce H. Shyu

last | National Taiwan University | ORCID 0000-0002-2564-3702

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Citation

BibTeX

@article{Chen2026First,
  title = {First-order estimates of slip rates and earthquake recurrence intervals of offshore seismogenic structures from the Taiwan Earthquake Model (TEM) project},
  author = {Cheng‐Hung Chen and J. Bruce H. Shyu},
  journal = {Engineering Geology},
  year = {2026},
  doi = {10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108934},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enggeo.2026.108934}
}

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